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Moeller in driver's seat but must maintain focus May 18, 2004 By Jim Jicha It’s amazing how time flies. Just yesterday, or so it seems, I was at Pickerington North watching the pool play round of the St. Charles Classic and talking to people about the prospects for the upcoming season. Now I’m a week late writing this preview of the state tournament. Having writers’ block I decided the best thing to do would be to begin with the season preview I wrote less than two months ago, and see what I had wrong. One glaring error was the location of the finals which will be at Otterbein’s Rike Center. I don’t know where I got the idea they would be at St. John’s Arena, but don’t go to Ohio State on Memorial Day weekend or you’ll miss all the fun. Otherwise, there were no major surprises. The Cincinnati area teams are powerful as expected, and the four teams most likely to win the state are Moeller, St. Xavier and LaSalle from the South, and Centerville from the West. I thought LaSalle looked like the frontrunner in March, but Moeller is in the driver’s seat now. The Crusaders have been a model of consistency this season, going 22-1 against a grueling schedule. Their loss is to LaSalle and they avenged that twice, most recently in the GCL Showcase. They are 7-1 in matches against the other three favorites. Moeller’s consistency stands in contrast to last year when the favorites took turns beating each other. And the Crusader’s performance has been nothing short of stellar against strong teams. Moeller played 32 games against Stow, McNicholas, Roger Bacon, Lakota West, Fairborn, St. Charles, Purcell Marian, Sycamore, Fairfield and Elder. They held those opponents below 20 points an incredible 30 times. In 22 of those games their opponents scored 15 or less. This is one tough team to score against, and then they come at you from all directions with a very balanced offense. But they can be beaten, and league members LaSalle and St. Xavier, plus Centerville, are certainly capable of knocking them from their perch. Fortunately for Moeller, those teams are in the opposite bracket and only one of them can make the final. However, Moeller can’t look ahead like that because to reach state they must play McNicholas, followed by the winner of host Sycamore and Elder. The latter two met at the beginning of the season when Sycamore won a come from behind thriller 12-25, 19-25, 29-27, 25-23, 16-14. McNicholas almost beat Sycamore in a quad midway through the season. Sycamore has lost to LaSalle, Moeller and St. Xavier in five, and St. Charles. Elder has eight other losses besides Sycamore, five to the state favorites and the others to Kilbourne, St. Edward, Trinity (Ky.). Elder beat LaSalle in the GCL Showcase. In the state quarter and semifinals Mt. Vernon and Worthington Kilbourne, or someone who beats them, will be lurking. But if they maintain their focus, Moeller can control their destiny and advance to the final. The other South bracket could pit LaSalle against St. Xavier in a regional final, and only one of them can make it to state. LaSalle has lost twice to Moeller, St. Xavier in a close four and Elder. The Lancers need to get past a tough Fairfield squad who beat Purcell Marian in the district. St. Xavier has five losses, but all are to Moeller and Centerville, and they beat the Elks in their most recent matchup. The Bombers must watch out for Loveland who started the season 2-8, but is now 9-8 after beating Roger Bacon to win the district. We’ll go with St. Xavier but a regional final between the Panthers and Lancers will be. Turning to the West, Centerville is the team to beat in their regional. The Elks' play Middletown first, then the winner of Lakota East versus Vandalia-Butler. Both Centerville and Lakota have beaten Butler. The Elks have six losses but all are to Moeller, St. Xavier (twice in five), and LaSalle, and they beat St. Xavier twice. The other West bracket is a toughie to predict what with Fairborn playing Lakota West and Fairmont taking on Chaminade-Julienne. Fairmont lost to Chaminade recently but has wins over the other two, while Fairborn has beaten Chaminade twice. Lakota West has lots of losses to strong opponents. Whoever gets hot at the right time will win this one. We’ll go with Fairborn on a mental toss of a four sided coin. The East includes most of the teams from the old Central Region. Dublin Coffman and Worthington Kilbourne are favored to advance. Coffman has already beaten all the teams in their regional, Watterson, Gahanna and St. Charles. The Rocks losses are to Kilbourne twice and Darby, both of whom are in the other bracket. Coffman looked impressive in winning Vandalia-Butler’s tournament by beating Fairfield and Hilliard Darby. However, Darby turned the tables on them three nights later in the OCC Challenge. Coffman has not met the top four state teams (they lost a scrimmage to LaSalle in pool play at the Wolf Classic). Kilbourne is favored in their bracket by virtue of having beaten all comers in Central Ohio, including Darby, Dublin Scioto and Pickerington Central. Kilbourne also has wins over Lakewood St. Edward, Elder, Stow and Fairborn, and Coffman. Besides a loss to Gahanna, which they avenged, the Wolves only losses are to favorites St. Xavier, LaSalle and Centerville. But Darby could give Kilbourne a stiff test. The Panthers, fresh from a big win over Coffman in the OCC Challenge, look stronger now than they did earlier in the season and they are peaking at the right time. Based on results against common opponents Central is favored over Scioto. Looking to the North, Lakewood St. Edward should make their first trip to state, but they need to avoid the upset bug. The Eagles will face St. Ignatius first, then the winner of Kent Roosevelt or Stow, and they have already beaten all of these teams. But they had previously beaten Walsh Jesuit too, going into a tri-match on May 1, where won the first game 25-14 only to lose the next two games and the match 23-25, 13-15. Kent and Stow have split two meetings with Kent edging the Bulldogs 16-14 in the fifth game of their most recent match. The teams each scored 180 points in the two matches but Stow holds the edge in games 5-4 and has more tournament experience so we’ll take them in the semifinal, and St. Edward to win the final in a rematch of last year when Stow pulled off a dramatic come from behind. For the other regional we’ll need that four sided coin again. Akron Hoban takes on Mt. Vernon in one semifinal and Walsh Jesuit battles Uniontown Lake in the other. Mt. Vernon has a better record than Hoban, but looks can be deceiving. Hoban beat Darby in a scrimmage at the Wolf Classic, and in the medal play matches they beat Roger Bacon and gave Gahanna a run for their money. Mt. Vernon, who is from the old Central region, has split matches with Stow and recently beat Walsh Jesuit. Speaking of which, Jesuit has lots of losses, but as noted they recently knocked off St. Edward. And in the district they toppled Delaware, who had just beaten Gahanna in the OCC Challenge, and who had earlier wins over Mt. Vernon, Hoban and Lake. Adding to the confusion, Lake has the best record of the four teams in this region. Mt. Vernon should win this region unless someone else does. Yogi Berra would love that logic. And with all of that said, here are my best guesses as to how it will turn out. State Quarterfinals Lakewood St. Edward vs. Cincinnati St. Xavier Centerville vs. Dublin Coffman Worthington Kilbourne vs. Fairborn Cincinnati Moeller vs. Mt. Vernon State Semifinals Cincinnati St. Xavier vs. Centerville Worthington Kilbourne vs. Cincinnati Moeller Final Cincinnati St. Xavier vs. Cincinnati Moeller Champion Cincinnati Moeller And one final prediction. If Cincinnati LaSalle gets out of the regional, look for them to play Moeller in the final.
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