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State Tournament hard to figure but will be fun to watch By Jim
Jicha
Well, the regular season is now complete, and the State Tournament is getting underway. But nothing has changed. The teams to beat are still the same. And even though each team has twenty plus matches under their belts, it isn’t any clearer if one should be favored over the others.
When Moeller is on their game they do look like the strongest team. With 6’8” Nick Meyer and Robbie Klein pounding kills they can seem unstoppable. But looks are deceiving.
Defending champion Centerville has stopped the Crusaders twice this year. In head to head meetings between all three teams, the Elks, who are led by the state’s premier setter Reed Chilton, have the best record. But records are misleading too.
St. Xavier has won their last two matches with Centerville. They have a solid lineup and play outstanding defense. And even though Moeller beat them 3-1 head to head, the Bombers won the league going undefeated in the process.
So picking a winner boils down to a mental coin toss when these teams play each other.
St. X does have one edge in the tournament. Assuming the three teams go all the way, the Bombers only have to play one of the other two, in the final. Centerville and Moeller will play each other in the semi-final. The winner will have to duke it out with the Bombers for the title.
Of course, the way this season has gone, nothing can be assumed. Everyone can be and has been beaten. A couple of weeks ago Elder beat St. Xavier and Moeller in back-to-back matches. LaSalle and Hilliard Darby have beaten Elder. Roger Bacon toppled Centerville at midseason. Mount Vernon surprised Darby on their home court. Lakewood St. Edward beat Darby, who beat Stow who beat St. Ed twice. You get the picture.
So who is likely to show up at Cleveland State on May 30? Let’s look at the brackets and see if we can make some sense out of the confusion that has reigned this year.
Northeast #1 – This one shapes up as a battle between Stow and Lakewood St. Edward. Both teams have played the other contenders in the Northeast, and come out unscathed. There have been a couple of close calls and even three game matches. But barring a surprise, these two will meet in the final with the winner advancing to the quarterfinal.
Stow won two close matches with St. Edward this year so they are a slight favorite. However, the Bulldogs beat St. Ed twice last year, only to lose to the Eagles in the regional.
Look for Walsh Jesuit, Archbishop Hoban, Lake, Massillon Jackson and Kent Roosevelt to provide possible challenges to the favorites.
Southwest #2 – St. Xavier is in the driver’s seat here. They won the GCL with an 8-0 record. Their chief threat will be LaSalle, who took the Bombers to three in early April. LaSalle won the Indianapolis Cathedral Tournament in mid-season. St. X has five losses, but four of them are to Moeller and Centerville.
It will take a major upset to prevent a regional final between the Bombers and Lancers.
Central 1 – Hilliard Darby should win this regional. Their chief competition will be archrival Davidson along with Watterson. The Panthers would meet one of them in the regional final.
Darby has beaten Scioto twice and split with Kilbourne. They lost at home to Mount Vernon. They beat Davidson in three and trounced Watterson. Early on they toppled Elder. At Stow they squeaked past the Bulldogs, but lost to St. Edward.
Watterson clobbered Stow at Centerville. Davidson has a young team and has lost a lot of close three game matches. Their opening opponent is Olentangy, a team they beat in three.
Northwest #2 – This regional has a lot of strong teams. Dublin Scioto gets the nod, but they will have their hands full. Their first opponent is St. Charles. Talk about momentum shifts. The Cardinals started the season 0-7 and finished 16-8. They beat Westerville South, Mount Vernon, Davidson twice and Pickerington along the way.
Assuming the Irish prevail, they are likely to face Beavercreek. For comparison, Beavercreek lost in three to Worthington Kilbourne. Scioto took two of three matches from Kilbourne. Beavercreek also split with Fairborn, and gave St. Xavier a scare at Centerville. Beavercreek’s first opponent is Vandalia-Butler, a team they beat 5-15, 15-10, 16-14 to start the season.
Whoever wins between Scioto and Beavercreek will almost certainly run into Fairborn in the regional final. At the Cardinal Classic Fairborn beat Lakota East and Mount Vernon and lost to Delaware. They split with Chaminade, beat Vandalia and lost decisively to Sycamore and Centerville.
Northwest #1 – Centerville should win this regional, although they could get an argument from Chaminade-Julienne. The Elks recently beat C-J 15-5, 15-12, and they have scored solid wins over Fairmont and Alter.
Central #2 – This is a very difficult regional to predict. Kilbourne gets a very slight nod over Mount Vernon and Gahanna. This is based on the latter two teams having to play each other with the winner playing the Wolves.
However, Gahanna did beat Kilbourne out for the league title 15-3, 4-15, 15-13. Kilbourne split with Darby who beat Gahanna twice. But Gahanna beat Mount Vernon who beat Darby.
In case you didn't follow all that, this regional is really a tossup.
Southwest #1 – Moeller is the obvious favorite here. They will probably face Roger Bacon, a team they beat 15-6, 15-6, in the regional final. Other contenders are Sycamore, Fairfield and Lakota West, all in Roger Bacon’s sub-bracket.
As noted earlier, Roger Bacon did beat Centerville, who has topped Moeller twice. So despite the Crusader's decisive regular season win, they cannot take the Spartans lightly.
Northeast #2 – Like Northwest #2 this regional is filled with many strong teams. The favorite is Elder. However, the Panthers will be tested early and often. They start with Lakota East, who went undefeated in the GMC and beat Roger Bacon.
Elder’s next opponent will be Westerville South or Delaware. In the final the Panthers will face the winner of: Pickerington; Dublin Coffman; and whoever comes from the Northeast bracket, probably St. Edward or Stow.
Should Elder stumble, the Northeast region team looks like the favorite, although it really could be anybody’s regional to win in that event.
Summary – If everything goes as predicted the state quarterfinal matches will look like this: Hilliard Darby vs. Dublin Scioto Centerville vs. Worthington Kilbourne Stow vs. St. Xavier Moeller vs. Elder
Of course, if everything goes as predicted, that will be a first for this season. But one prediction is a sure bet. We are all going to have lots of fun seeing what really does happen. |
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