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Division I In a preview I wrote for PrepVolleyball.com before the season started, I stated that the state champion would come from this group of teams:
Chaminade-Julienne That looks pretty much right on after seven weeks of regular season play. Top ranked Toledo St. Ursula is undefeated and, with wins over Cincinnati St. Ursula and Toledo Central Catholic, they are my choice to finally win it all. With one major caveat. At the start of the season, Cincinnati St. Ursula hitter Maggie Schmelzle was out with an injury. If you saw her in last year's state championship, you know how big a loss that was. She is back and the Bulldogs are on a tear. If they win another title this year, it won't be a surprise. Toledo St. Ursula will have to stay focused to get to the Nutter Center. The Arrows will likely have to beat Central Catholic a third time in the district, and should face second ranked Findlay in a regional semifinal. Central almost beat them in their first match. Findlay's lineup includes five players 6'0" or taller, and four starters with Division I commitments. The Trojans beat Mount Notre Dame and lost to Walnut Hills during the regular season. Spoilers in the district include Notre Dame Academy, Bowling Green and Perrysburg. The Arrows should meet Magnificat, Elyria or Lakewood in the regional final, barring any surprises. The southwest region is as strong as ever this year, albeit without a super team. Cincinnati has a smorgasbord of powerful teams, especially the GGCL. Seton is ranked #1 by the Enquirer and #3 on the Coaches Poll. But Mother of Mercy won Seton's league. And Cincinnati St. Ursula is the hottest team in that league having beaten every member to finish 5-5 after an 0-5 start. Mount Notre Dame beat Roger Bacon and Ursuline has looked strong. McAuley only won two league matches but finished third in Mercy's Fall Classic, ahead of Magificat, Chaminade-Julienne and Solon, to put things in perspective. So take your pick. Luckily for Seton and Mount Notre Dame, they don't have to go to Vandalia (their bracket is in the Hilliard regional). Unluckily for one of them, they meet each other in the sectional. Cincinnati is also home to Walnut Hills. The Eagles haven't been beaten since their opener against Mercy, and late in the season they traveled to Findlay giving the Trojans their only loss. Possible spoilers in the Cincinnati districts are Lakota West, Harrison and Oak Hills. St. Ursula could play some intriguing opponents. The first would be neighboring Walnut Hills in the District final. If the Bulldogs win that, another showdown with arch rival Ursuline is in the offing in the Regional semifinal. Those two have clashed in the last three State finals. Seton or Mount Notre Dame will join three Central District teams at Hilliard. One likely entrant is Lancaster, who will need to get past Westerville South in the district final. Another is the winner of Dublin Scioto, Delaware Hayes, Newark and Gahanna Lincoln. The third will probably be Watterson, although Olentangy Liberty, Hilliard Davidson and Darby have a shot. With parity, the Central District should have some highly contested matchups. In the northeast, the two strongest teams are Wooster and Solon. Wooster has a lot of losses to ranked teams, and the Generals are the only team to beat Orrville. Solon's losses are also to ranked teams. Spoilers include Massillon Perry and Mentor. Division II With everyone back from a team that rolled over Ben Logan and gave eventual champion Archbishop Alter a big scare last year, Roger Bacon figured to be the team to beat this year. The Spartans have beaten Alter and McNicholas twice, and they also boast victories over Seton, Mother of Mercy, and plus Kentucky powers St. Henry and Louisville Mercy Academy. With credentials like that they still figure to be the team to beat. The good news for opponents is that they can be beaten, as losses to Chaminade-Julienne and Mount Notre Dame attest. Figuring out exactly how to beat them will be the unenviable task for one of the southwest region’s other powerhouse teams, whichever one survives to the regional final: Alter, Ben Logan or McNicholas. Some folks think those three plus Roger Bacon are the four strongest teams in the division. Now fans from places like West Holmes, Olmsted Falls, Fairview and DeSales will dispute that, but if one of the three can get past Bacon, they will surely make their presence know at the Nutter Center. Ben Logan and Alter must traverse a gauntlet to the final four. First they battle each other in the district final, and the winner gets to tangle with McNicholas in the regional semifinal. Of course¸ McNicholas must first get past Bellbrook at districts. That’s the team who handed Kings their only two losses of the year, knocking the Knights out last Saturday. Whoever wins from this group of teams gets to play Roger Bacon in the regional final. The Spartans also need to take care of business, as the Richmond Dale district is part of this region. Washington Court House and Warren are the top seeds, but a number of teams could win. Unioto beat Court House earlier in the year, for example. Whoever does win will face Roger Bacon in the regional semifinal. Kenston looks good to go in the northeast, although that might not be the case if Fairview and Olmsted Falls were still in the regional, because Fairview beat them this year. Walsh Jesuit could trouble Kenston in the district. Possible threats in the region are Copley, Hubbard, Salem, Lake Catholic and Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin. The east region (Wooster) is the home of West Holmes, state runners-up the past two years. The Knights are favored to make it to the Nutter Center a fourth straight year but the addition of the Olmsted District will make that more difficult, as they will have to contend with either Olmsted Falls or Fairview Park Fairview. Olmsted Falls is undefeated and beat Fairview twice, but both matches went five games with a 16-14 tiebreaker, so the district final between those two is a tossup. Whoever wins that match should meet Maysville or Richmond Edison in the regional semifinal, and West Holmes will face Canal Fulton Northwest in the other. The northwest region has a lot of strong teams, including Maumee, Holland Springfield, Norwalk, Bellevue, Fostoria, and Celina. However, Central District will send two representatives, and one seems sure to be St. Francis DeSales, who looks like the best of all. The Stallions must watch for the winner of Canal Winchester and Bexley. The other could be Big Walnut who made a strong showing by beating Watterson, Westerville South and Centerburg last week. If not Big Walnut, then Granville, Bishop Hartley or New Albany. Division III Prior to the season I picked Orrville to win Division III and I still think they are the strongest team, but they may get a stiff challenge in the regional semifinal from Villa Angela-St. Joseph. The Vikings are looking for a repeat of 2001 when they came from way back in a state semifinal against Huron and won it all. VASJ’s only losses are to Olmsted Falls and Walsh Jesuit, and they’ve beaten Lake Catholic and Notre Dame-Cathedral Latin. Orrville split with Wooster, and has a combined five wins over West Holmes and Mansfield Madison. Assuming the Red Riders get past VASJ they will likely face undefeated Columbiana Crestview or Girard. Tuscarawas Valley is looking to make their sixth state appearance in eight years. I’m going with the undefeated Trojans, but they will have a tough time. For one thing they aren’t even the #1 seed although they resolved that by beating top seeded Sandy Valley in sectionals. Assuming they make regionals they will probably have to play Wheelersburg in the semis and the winner of Westfall and whoever comes out of Central District, either Heath, Bloom-Carroll or Jonathan Alder, in the final. Westfall dethroned Frankfort Adena, ending a 14 year title run by the Warriors. They also gave Ben Logan a run for their money before bowing 23-25, 23-25. Westfall is in Eastern Brown’s district bracket and must beat them to get to regionals. My favorite to win the southwest is Newark Catholic, and they’re from eastern Ohio. The Green Wave played West Holmes tough and their only other loss is to Oregon Clay. They beat some Division I toughies like Dublin Scioto and most especially Chaminade-Julienne. Versailles with be a threat and don’t be surprised if somehow the Tigers make it back to the Nutter, where they were runners-up last year. They play in St. Henry’s league and seven of eight losses are to league opponents. Anna could also challenge. In the Northwest Mohawk is undefeated with quality wins over Convoy Crestview, Old Fort and Seneca East, so they get the nod. But Huron, Cardinal Stritch, Bluffton and Genoa are all possibilities in that order. Division IV In the pre-season preview I picked St. Henry, Sidney Lehman, Norwalk St. Paul and Marion Local as the teams to beat in Division IV. Two more teams must be added to that list: Jackson Center and Sidney Fairlawn. Unfortunately, only two of those teams will make it to the Nutter. In fact, one of them, Marion Catholic or St. Henry, will be gone after the district semifinal. I’m picking St. Henry to win it all, but the Redskins barely beat Marion in their league encounter, coming back from an 0-2 deficit. Sidney Lehman beat St. Henry, but lost to Marion Local. Jackson Center and Fairlawn have only three losses between them, half of Lehman’s six losses. But, Lehman beat Jackson Center in five, while Jackson Center and Fairlawn split matches with each other. If you look at Lehman’s schedule, you won’t be put off by their losses. Plus, the Cavaliers came out ahead of contenders from the other regions at Convoy Crestview's tournament. Based on all this, and barring upsets, the southwest regional looks like the place to be: St. Henry/Marion Local versus Jackson Center and Lehman versus Fairlawn, with whoever wins being favored to win state. Norwalk St. Paul is favored in the northeast, with their challengers being Buckeye Central, Windham, Kidron Central Christian and Wynford. Lehman defeated St. Paul at Convoy. Frankfort Adena has a young but strong team, and is certainly capable of winning the southeast. Beaver Eastern and Centerburg should be their main opposition. Lehman squeaked by Adena at Convoy. The northwest has a plethora of possibilities. I’m taking Kalida based on record. Other choices, in no particular order, are Old Fort, Hilltop, Leipsic, Convoy Crestview, Hopewell-Loudon, and Northwood. Lehman finished ahead of Crestview and Old Fort at Convoy. With all this talk about Sidney Lehman, you probably wonder why I'm not taking them to win the state. Well I am - if they get there!
Possible Regional Pairings by Division
Division I Region 1 – Hudson Hudson vs. Solon Wooster vs. Mentor Region 2 – Norwalk Toledo St. Ursula vs. Findlay Elyria vs. Magnificat Region 3 – Hilliard Davidson Lancaster vs. Dublin Scioto Cincinnati Seton vs. Watterson Region 4 – Vandalia Cincinnati St. Ursula vs. Ursuline Chaminade-Julienne vs. Mother of Mercy
Division I State Final Four Possibilities Wooster (Region 1) Toledo St. Ursula (Region 2) Cincinnati Seton (Region 3) Cincinnati St. Ursula (Region 4)
Division II Region 5 – Stow-Munroe Falls Copley vs. Hubbard Kenston vs. Lake Catholic Region 6 - Wooster Olmsted Falls vs. Maysville West Holmes vs. Canal Fulton Northwest Region 7 – Ontario Norwalk vs. St. Francis DeSales Big Walnut vs. Maumee Region 8 – Wilmington Kettering Archbishop Alter vs. Cincinnati McNicholas St. Bernard Roger Bacon vs. Washington Court House
Division II State Final Four Possibilities Kenston (Region 5) West Holmes (Region 6) St. Francis DeSales (Region 7) St. Bernard Roger Bacon (Region 8)
Division III Region 9 – Barberton Girard vs. Columbiana Crestview Cleveland Villa Angela-St. Joseph vs. Orrville Region 10 – Liberty-Benton Mohawk vs. Cardinal Stritch Lutheran West vs. Rockford Parkway Region 11 – Logan Bishop Ready vs. Williamsport Westfall Tuscarawas Valley vs. Wheelersburg Region 12 – Wilmington Bishop Fenwick vs. Versailles Newark Catholic vs. Anna
Division III State Final Four Possibilities Orrville (Region 9) Mohawk (Region 10) Tuscarawas Valley (Region 11) Newark Catholic (Region 12)
Division IV Region 13 – Twinsburg Kidron Central Christian vs. Windham Norwalk St. Paul vs. Ashtabula Sts. John & Paul Region 14 – Elida West Unity Hilltop vs. Leipsic Kalida vs. Old Fort Region 15 – Lancaster Frankfort Adena vs. Tuscarawas Central Catholic Beaver Eastern vs. Centerburg Region 16 – Vandalia-Butler Sidney Lehman vs. Sidney Fairlawn St. Henry vs. Jackson Center
Division IV State Final Four Possibilities Norwalk St. Paul (Region 13) Kalida (Region 14) Frankfort Adena (Region 15) St. Henry (Region 16)
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